An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination.
The weather records of the U.S.A. are the best kept and most accessible in the world, thanks to consistent government/military taxpayer support. There are longer European data sets, but the U.S.A. data is enough to forecast major extreme events.
Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.
I was really interested to see whether we could make predictions or forecasts by listening in on what people were saying on social media.
When we started Skype, if you look at analyst reports, no one forecasted it as a big business. Also when Google started, it was not fashionable to be in search. It's not trying to do the obvious - that's the hard part.
Trying to keep up with health advice can feel like surfing the Net for weather forecasts: what you find is always changing, often contradictory and rarely encouraging.
I believe that economists put decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor.
Dad loved computer games, and I would sit beside him for hours with graph paper, drawing out plans to try and forecast the moves he should make while he worked the computer controller.
Forecasting Armageddon has become trendy of late, with a great deal of attention being given to an interpretation of the Mayan Calendar suggesting that Mother Earth is destined for doom in December of 2012.
Intelligence Forecast of the Week. Coming soon: the bloodiest film ever – nothing but close-ups of red blood cells, plasma and platelets.
I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.
The only way to predict if there's a cloud on your horizon due to glaucoma is to get tested. No matter what the diagnosis, the forecast is for clear vision in the years ahead.
Fuck the weather forecasters and their predictions. With magic, he’d just turned their Doppler radar upside down. Sapphire Phelan (Being Familiar With a Witch)
During the early 1960s, I decided to supplement research support for quantitative economic studies at Pennsylvania by selling econometric forecasts to private and public sector buyers.
It is important for investors to understand what they do and don't know. Learn to recognize that you cannot possibly know what is going to happen in the future, and any investment plan that is dependent on accurately forecasting where markets will be...
I think the association of economics with forecasting is unfortunate and is down to the fact that one great way to get an investment bank's name on business television is to hire a guy called a Chief Economist who will go and prognosticate.
There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Forecasting our futures is built into our psyches because we will soon have to manage that future. We have no choice. No matter how often we fail, we can never stop trying.
Whenever I see a forecast written out to two decimal places, I cannot help but wonder if there is a misunderstanding of the limitations of the data, and an illusion of precision.
Wanda: What about my tits? Otto: Does he get to handle them? Wanda: Yes. That's my forecast. I'll stand by that.
Frank Kruse: This is my job. Nina Romina: Your job's writing the tweet of the day and getting Deb to turn sideways during the weather forecast.
